(ISW) The nice people at the Institute for the Study of War, have knocked out their latest situation report on the state of affairs inside Iraq.
ISIS escalated its execution campaign in and around Mosul,
targeting former Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) officers and civilians accused of
collaborating with the ISF in order to maintain control and inflict fear as the
ISF closes in. The UN, Human Rights Watch (HRW), and local sources reported
that ISIS has executed hundreds of civilians on charges of collaborating with
the ISF and has executed or kidnapped over 600 former ISF officers when it
withdrew from terrain, including Hammam al-Alil and near Tel Afar. ISIS is
using the execution campaign to demonstrate control over its population, deter
the ISF from advancing lest ISIS retaliates with executions, and tamp down on
possible internal resistance. It will likely increase this tactic as the ISF
closes in on Mosul where the majority of the estimated 1.5 million civilians
still remain, raising the likelihood of high human causalities during the
operation to retake the city.
ISIS reactivated networks in Anbar, allowing it to carry out
suicide attacks in secured locations near Fallujah and Karbala. ISIS carried
out successful suicide attacks near Karbala and at a checkpoint in Fallujah on
November 14 and in Amiriyat al-Fallujah on November 17, targeting Shi’a
pilgrims, security forces, and civilians. The attack in Fallujah marks the
first attacks since the city’s recapture in June. The locations of the attacks
suggest that ISIS has re-established or consolidated networks in the area or
found residents that remain either tolerant of ISIS’s ideology or opposed to
the government enough to allow ISIS to infiltrate. ISIS will continue to
exploit the gaps left in local security due to the large deployment of ISF and
Popular Mobilization units away from Fallujah to northern Iraq in order to
carry out attacks.
