(ISW) The nice people at the Institute for the Study of War have brought out a map which shows the current situation inside Iraq as of this Tuesday.
Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki continues to shape the
political landscape in Iraq. Maliki’s shadow party, the Reform Front, led an
interrogation of Minister of Foreign Affairs Ibrahim al-Jaafari on October 6.
The effort to remove Jaafari from his post follows an ongoing process steered
by Maliki to eliminate his key rivals and undermine Prime Minister Haidar
al-Abadi’s administration. The successful removal of Jaafari, a competitor to
Maliki’s premiership, would indicate that the Shi’a National Alliance is too
fractured to support Jaafari, a pro-Iranian and consensus figure, and to foil
Maliki’s targeting of ministers, which the National Alliance has stated it
opposes. Jaafari’s removal would also indicate to Maliki that he has the
numbers to drive a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, a position he
ultimately aims to retake.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan and PM Abadi traded
bombastic rhetoric over Turkish force presence northeast of Mosul. Turkey
renewed its one-year force mandate on October 1, reviving ongoing complaints by
Iraqi officials against Turkey’s violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Erdogan’s
hostile comments against Iraq and PM Abadi on October 11, however, are part of
a greater trend by Erdogan to posture Turkey as having a right to influence any
decision made about northern Iraq. His firm rhetoric does, however, suggest
that he is reserving Turkey’s right to operate in northern Iraq, primarily to
counter the expansion of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on the Turkish-Iraqi
border and prevent them from participating in Mosul operations.
