(ISW) Russia heightened its military posture in Europe by
projecting its land, air and naval capabilities. The Russian Ministry of
Defense announced on May 4 that it would create three new combined-arms
divisions in the Western and Southern military districts, with a second
announcement on June 3 specifying that these would include moving two motorized
infantry brigades to its Western borders with Belarus and Ukraine. The Russian
announcement was likely a response to proposed NATO plans to deploy
multinational NATO battalions to the Baltic States and Poland, which were first
announced as a possible course of action in April. Russia further reasserted
itself through the movement of advanced naval equipment to the Black and
Mediterranean Seas and continued violation of Baltic and Polish airspace.
Russia also announced plans to boost its defensive capabilities through the
installation of an additional S-300 air defense system in Belarus and an
upgrade to the ‘Bereg’ coastal defense artillery system on the Black Sea.
Russia will continue demonstrating its military capabilities over the next few
months, as it plans to conduct a surge of military exercises June-October
during its annual summer training period. These measures allow Russia to
increase its military posture and position key capabilities along its Western
border without crossing the threshold that would provoke an armed NATO response
under Article 5.
Russia also continued to threaten NATO members and partners
with retaliatory action for increased NATO presence in Europe. In response to
the installation of European missile shield components in Romania and Poland,
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that these countries could find themselves
in Russia’s “cross-hairs.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced
that Russia would not use military action against a NATO member state, with the
key caveat of “unless provoked.” These statements allow Russia to maintain its
defensive stance while setting conditions that could legitimize aggressive
action. Meanwhile, NATO member states and non-NATO partners launched the
ten-day Anaconda 2016 joint military exercise, the largest war game undertaken
in Europe since the end of the Cold War.
Read more at the ISW website here
