(ISW) The nice people at the Institute for the Study of War have brought out a map which shows the current situation inside Iraq as of this Tuesday:
Intra-Shi’a tensions reached a boiling point in Iraq when
Sadrist demonstrators defaced headquarters buildings of both rival Shi’a
political parties and at least one Iranian proxy militia in Baghdad and
southern Iraq. The demonstrations, which began on Ramadan on June 6, were small
and not likely centrally coordinated; some demonstrators defaced the
headquarters buildings of al-Ahrar Bloc, the Sadrist Trend’s main political
party. The violent attacks are particularly destabilizing as security forces
are preoccupied with the Fallujah operation and securing the country from ISIS
attacks – a serious threat during Ramadan. Iraq’s major Shi’a parties,
including the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), Fadhila, and the State of
Law Alliance, as well as Iranian proxy groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah and the
Badr Organization, denounced the attacks, as did Prime Minister Haidar
al-Abadi. The wide-spread rejection of the demonstrators’ methods, likely
combined with strong pressure from Iran, forced Muqtada al-Sadr to call off
demonstrations until after Ramadan. Some small demonstrations may continue due
to the Sadrist Trend’s large size and lack of discipline, but the suspension of
demonstrations underscores the serious nature of the threat of intra-Shi’a
conflict. Meanwhile, security forces continue to make progress in recapturing
central Fallujah without participation from the Popular Mobilization. However,
reports of civilian abuses continue to emerge, indicating that the area may
remain unstable for an extended period of time and vulnerable to ISIS
resurgence. This risk may amplify if sectarian violence continues and Iraqi
Shi’a militias retain a long-term presence in the Fallujah area.
