(ISW) The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) has made significant
progress in its operation to retake Fallujah, but the city is not fully
cleared. Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi announced the full recapture of
Fallujah on June 17, following the recapture of the government complex.
However, the northern neighbourhoods of the city remain controlled by ISIS, and
several western neighbourhoods are still contested.
Even as the ISF operation
is on the verge of military success in Fallujah, it is poised to be a political
failure. The Badr Organization, an Iranian-backed Shi’a proxy militia, has
entered the city limits alongside pro-Iranian ISF elements. Badr’s presence in Fallujah could spoil the anti-ISIS
campaign and setback government efforts of Sunni reconciliation. This setback
may already be triggered. Iranian proxy militias continue to carry out violations
against the Sunni population fleeing the city. Anbar Governor Suhaib al-Rawi
reported on June 13 that Popular Mobilization fighters in Saqlawiyah had
executed 49 Sunni men and disappeared 643 civilians the week before, following
reports of similar actions around Garma. Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a
report on June 9 further detailing militia abuse against Sunni residents. The
Popular Mobilization has denied or downplayed these allegations. Popular
Mobilization activity in Fallujah’s environs has demonstrated that militias are
likely to treat residents in Fallujah as complicit with ISIS.
