Russia: Putin lays down terms for a ceasefire.

(Moscow)  So Vladimir Putin speaking to diplomats at the Russian foreign ministry, issued his demands to Kyiv in order to halt his invasion of the Ukraine. they were:

• That Ukrainian troops leave the entire regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and that they be declared Russian territory by international agreement,
• Drop its NATO bid in order for him to end his war in Ukraine.

He also issued a demand to the West which was:

• drop all financial sanctions against Russia as a precondition to a ceasefire

To be fair, nothing has really changed as Moscow has laid claim to the 4 oblasts since the 30th of September 2022, however and a big however weeks after that proclamation Moscow suffered huge reversals in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts  meaning that currently Moscow doesnt fully control any of the Oblasts it covets. 

So here is what Moscow currently occupies inside the Ukraine:

What its demands are:

We saw something similar in 2014 when Moscow annexed the Crimea, which the world was told was all Russia wanted and in Feb 2022 we saw different. Who's to say that if Kyiv accepts this so called peace deal, that in say 8 years time after Russia has made good its losses, it decides its wants more. I mean isn't that how Russia has operated for over 200 years

Russia: Ukraine takes out Russian stealth fighter

(Akhtubinsk) Ukraine carried out a long distance drone strike on a major Russian Air base 589 km from the Ukrainian border 

where Russia’s latest Su-57 fighter jets are based. 

They are part of the 929th State Flight Test Centre of the Russian Defence Ministry, which tests new aircraft systems, onboard radars, and weapons. According to published annual photographs of the airfield, aircraft with number 053 and aircraft with number 510 were based there, and the latter is used as a flying laboratory where Russia has for the past few years been testing the Su 57 with different weapon systems

Anyway yesterday, Kyiv struck the runway and damaged at least one Su 57 (acknowledged by Moscow) and it appears that a second may have been taken out as well. 

Say what you want about this war, but one thing is becoming very clear, for Moscow, this has become a very expensive affair.  

Ukraine: Russian electronic jamming proves effective at degrading US supplied weapons'

(Kyiv) It is been reported that U.S. supplied Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs)  in use by Ukraine have failed to withstand Russian electronic jamming resulting in Kyiv ceasing using certain Western-provided armaments after failure rates rose sharply.

Much vaulted weapons such as Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System(HIMARS) (Along with its larger sibling the M270) have seen their ability to strike on target reduced when faced with Russian EW systems. For example, the Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells ability to hit its target, fell to less than 10 percent before Ukraine decided to stop using them last year. Similar degradation of targeting has been seen in US supplied Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAMs) however Boeing the manufacture was quickly able to knock out and provide a fix. Another example was the MRLS missiles used by HIMARs and the M270, but as that system is still in use, It can only be presumed that a fix was worked out for this also. 

Moscow is using 3 main systems for its Electronic warfare these are:

R-330Zh Zhitel

The R-330Zh is a truck based system designed for detection, analysis, direction-finding, and jamming of satellite and cellular phone communication systems 

Krasukha

The Krasuha-4 is a broadband multifunctional jamming system designed to neutralize spy satellites  ground-based radars, airborne surveillance radars, and radar-guided ordinance at ranges between 150–300 km, and may also cause damage to enemy radar electronic warfare and communications systems. 

Tirada-2

Tirada-2: This system is designed specifically to jam satellite communications, including those used by GPS-guided munitions. By targeting the communication links between satellites and ground-based receivers, the Tirada-2 can effectively neutralize the guidance systems of weapons like the HIMARS.

Why does this matter on the larger stage. The US and its allies started swapping it dumb weaponry for smarter ones after the first Gulf War, citing that whilst these new weapons are more expensive,  due to the fact they are much more accurate, less weapons need to be procured , (And it allows politicians to play the less collateral damage card due to much smaller warheads used) If Moscow has worked out how to blind such systems , expect others such as China, North Korea, Iran to either develop similar tech or receive it from Moscow resulting in the technological edge the US (and the West) have over everybody else regards military capabilities has been eroded . But what makes this even more damning is this is nothing new, these systems (and Moscow has a lot)  have been public knowledge for years

It’s a huge wake up call for the West who will need to find ways to harden their PGMs and questions will have to be raised at how such a vulnerability wasn’t anticipated .

Russia: Forms Motorbike assault groups

(Ukraine) It never fails to amaze me how Moscow goes well out of its way in which to come off worse in the war it instigated inside the Ukraine a war to all intent and purposes it should have ended in a few days. We saw that with how it failed to gain control of the air, its poor quality of troops, the poor quality of the equipment it issues and most of all the very poor quality of its leadership who like the generals of the Western front in WW1 are happy to throw away the lives of thousands in which to gain a few feet. 

This is a military force whom the West expected if the balloon went up during the cold war to see the Soviets reach the English channel in a week. and after 2 years of fighting inside the Ukraine where from get go, Moscow has vastly outnumbered the other feller from numbers of men and equipment, the ability to absorb losses and most of all the money in the world in funding this war and yet currently Moscow has still metaphorically speaking to get out of the starting blocks. The vast majority of its gains were made at the start of the war and after suffering huge losses in men and equipment, around Kyiv and huge reversals around Kharkiv and Kherson, the only thing that saved Moscow's arse in the south was the foresight by General Sergey Surovikin to build a huge line of defences which prevented total humiliation and defeat for Moscow. Since then for both sides the war has been measured in advances of a few hundreds metres a day which of late has seen Moscow losing around 900 and 20 tanks a day.

Noting this Moscow has looked at alternative ways in which to take the war to Kyiv and some bright spark came up with the idea of equipping assault troops with Motorbikes allowing them to rush deep inside enemy territory. (gee I wonder why nobody else came up with idea) and the Russians to much fanfare reported this new breakthrough in advanced military thinking to the Plebs back home via the silver screen: (Take note how those 4 soldiers on bikes don't have any form of optic fitted to their weapons.)

Some Russia soldiers even fitted netting at the back of their assault motorbikes in which to protect them from First Person View (FPV) drones, which have taken a very heavy toll of Russian forces.

The problem with using motorbikes as a means of assault whilst good on paper, fails at the first hurdle if the other fellow is armed simply because they don't offer you any protection at all.

There's plenty more such videos across social media, I have to ask what will the Russians think of next?

Ukraine: Despite overwhelming Russian pressure, Kyiv continues to knock out high value Russian targets.

(Mospyne) Despite the acute pressure Moscow is placing on Kyiv of late: 

• Large scale attacks on energy production capabilities
• Advances on the Avdiivka front
• Advances on the Kharkiv front
• Advances on the Sumy front 

The Ukrainians are still holding the Russians at bay making them pay heavily for every foot they concede,(reported Moscow is losing around 900 men a day)  but not only that, they are still taking the fight to Russia taking out a lot of top notch high quality equipment which is a lot harder to replace than your average conscripted infantry soldier such as the destruction over the weekend of the Karakurt-class corvette Tsiklon. 

A recent addition to the Russian navy (she was commissioned last July) whilst a naval asset, the Tsiklon has the ability to launch land strike cruise missiles such as the Kalibr and  the P-800 Oniksboth of which the Russians have used to deadly effect targeting primarily civilian targets all across the Ukraine . Ironically the small but deadly Karakurt class is also fitted with a most comprehensive air defence suite comprising of either a couple of AK-630M gun-based close-in weapon systems (CIWS), or, the Pantsir-M air defense system has been installed, but as we saw with her sister ship Askold in Nov 2023, all that defensive gear means squat when the Ukrainians have you in their sight, which is why the Tsiklon  which was pictured docked in Sevastopol on Friday the 17th May 2024 is now gracing the bottom of Sevastopol harbour.

And today it has been reported that the Ukraine targeted a air defence missile system in the village of Mospine which can be found 15 miles behind Donetsk city destroying the following:

·        X S-300/400 air defence missile launchers were destroyed:

·        1 X S-300/400 air defence missile launcher was damaged

·        1 X Radar “96L6E” was destroyed;

·        1X Control centre of the S-300/400 air defence system was destroyed:

Update:

Video has emerged of the above missile strike. (I recommend keeping the sound off)

In the Krasnodar Krai  region of Russia on Wednesday (22/05/24) the Ukraine damaged a couple of  Voronezh early warning radar systems.  The Voronezh is a huge static radar system designed specifically for long distance monitoring of airspace against ballistic missile attack.

This strike comes just a week after Ukraine took out the Russian long distance Radar system based on Mount Ai-Petri

So whilst the Russians is easily able to replace men and armour, its ability to replace high value targets such as Ships, Aircraft, Radar and Missile systems is a lot harder and that we have seen in how Ukraine in its selective targeting has effectively removed the Black sea fleet (due to losses) from around the Crimea Resulting in Russia conceding command of that area to the Ukraine which hasn't a navy and as we are seeing it is slowly but surely eradicating Russian long distance Anti-air missiles systems from the region as well, which I feel will come back to bite Moscow in the near future.

Ukraine: Video show how poor Russian Tanks are to FPV drone attacks

(Donbas)  The one thing that has come out in the wash these past 2 years, is how poor Russian tanks are when it comes to protection. The main issue is primarily with all the tanks from the T64 onwards (T72/T80/T90) seeing as they are all based around the T64 which was designed to be smaller than contemporary designs (AMX 30/ Leopard 1/ Chieftain/ M60)  but just as lethal. However getting rid of a crew member and replacing him with an autoloader which whilst a good idea when designed when the enemy was supposed to attack from the front, (which is why the Soviet era tanks are pretty well protected from that direction) hasn't aged very well with the advent of Anti-tank guided Missiles and of late First Person View (FPV) drones which can attack from all directions. 

The Russians noted this weakness somewhat earlier on and after adding additional armour to the front of the T72 tank either side of the main gun (which garnered the nickname 'Dolly Patton and Super Dolly Patton", they went down the path of Explosive Reactive Armour (the tiny little bricks) common on Russian armour) which culminated in the T72B3M which came into service in 2014 where the ERA bricks are thinner , less distinguishable and flow into each other than previous iterations as seen below where the ERA on the front of the T72B3M cannot really be seen.

Most of the world looked at the latest Russian tanks as world beating and excused their poor showing across the Middle East as due to poor training and lesser quality export models sold by Russia and then the Ukraine happened and all the weaknesses of the T64 onwards which had supposed to have been rectified turned out not to have. Which explains the following video of a T80BV tank from last week, which on getting hit by a FPV drone (usually a drone with an RPG warhead affixed) 

suffers a catastrophic explosion which as we have seen this past 2 years has become something of a hallmark of Russian armour. The only problem for the Ukraine, is that Russia has thousands of tanks in stock and a leader willing to accept horrendous losses. 

Ukraine: Carries out devastating strikes on Russian Airbase.

(Crimea) Over a period of 2 consecutive nights Ukraine struck the Russian military airbase at Belbek  which is situated around 5 miles north of Sevastopol formerly known as Sevastopol International Airport Belbek when under Ukrainian control, since Russia annexed the area in 2014, it has only been used as a military airbase, which Moscow has used to great effect in its war against the Ukraine.

On the nights of the 14th and 15th of May the Russians claimed that they had stopped and prevented attacks on the Airbase stating they had shot down 10 recently supplied US MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System missiles (ATACMs) and then daylight broke allowing satellite photos of the airbase to reveal that something did get through and that quite a bit of damage was caused:

Resulting in the loss of:

1x S400 Missile system

2x Mig 31 (Used by Russia to launch cruise missiles into Ukraine)

1x Mig 29

1x Su 27

1x fuel compound 

There is claims that more aircraft were damaged, but that the Russians removed them from sight so as keep the full details to themselves.

Maxar pictures show Russia’s destroyed MiG-31, MiG-29, Su-27, as well as a depot at Belbek airbase in Russia-occupied Crimea. This will significantly reduce Russia’s air raids capacities. Imagine what these ATACMS could do with Belgorod airfields from where Russia bombs Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/PmJpkMYvdZ

— Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M (@sumlenny) May 17, 2024

Ukraine: Russia opens up new front above Kharkiv.

(Kharkiv)  On Friday the 10th May (The day after the Russian 9th of May celebration and where Putin gave a speech about fighting the Nazis) Moscow open up a new front against Ukraine by crossing the border into the northern part of the Kharkiv Oblast with 35000 troops.

After 4 days of fighting, not much is known but it appears that Russia has advanced around 5 miles into Ukraine, which to be fair isnt that good going for a country which outnumbers the other feller in everything bar the will to fight. In fact whilst the western media is pushing the narrative that the Russians just walked in, it hasn't been exactly easy going for the Russians and they have suffered heavily, but that said it isn't the first time that Moscow has turned a blind eye to causalities suffered

At this moment in time, nobody knows what Putin is after, some say he wants a buffer zone to prevent  Kyiv from striking inside Russia, but when we see UAVs striking targets 700 miles into Russia, that plan of action comes across as moot. Maybe he wants to divert Ukrainian forces from the Donbas in which to take some pressure off his forces there, or maybe, just maybe he wants to take Kharkiv, believing that will place pressure on Zelenskyy to step down, affording the new President the freedom to sue for peace on Russian terms.. Only time will tell

Ukraine: and the use of decoys

(Kyiv) Throughout history decoys and misdirection have been used to great effect by one side to gain an advantage over the other, this we saw during the Second World War when the allies hoodwinked Nazis Germany regards the invasion of Europe, when the US deployed the 23rd headquarters special troops  to the Uk in January 1944 who used dummy tanks, aircraft, fake sounds played over loud speakers and even dummy radio traffic in which to send the message across the channel that the Allies had a huge army around Dover ready to cross the shortest distance between the Uk and France, which tied up German thinking and units around the Calais region where actually they struck around 170 miles further south in Normandy.

Well it appears the Ukrainians have gone down a similar route in which to fool the Russians, in this case to misdirect the Russians into using their huge missiles stocks on striking dummy equipment, in fact a small cottage industry has been developed to produce such facsimiles, such as a dummy Patriot missile battery which saw the Russians expend a Iskander ballistic missile which of late the Russians have been using to strike priority targets  

You know, some decoys are hard to recognize but others are way too obvious that you better hide from your superiors that you just wasted a $3 million missile on plywood. This was the latter case.

No secondary explosions of missiles, not even secondary burns, tubes look pretty… pic.twitter.com/sjPUXDc0jS

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 10, 2024

Ukraine: Kyiv targets Russian troop deployment with devastating results

(Mozhnyakivka) The other day it was revealed that the US had furnished Ukraine with the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) basically a Ballistic missile which can be launched by US Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) be it the original M270 

or the latter (but better known) HIMARS.

Unlike its siblings ATACMS is much larger and a single missile will take up the space  that 6 will take.

However that does afford the missile a number of advantages such as increasing the range to hit targets from around 50 miles out to 190 miles and increases the speed to Mach 3 (around 2300mph) which makes it nigh impossible for most anti-missile systems to take them out. The warhead of the M39 version contains 940 small bomblets around the size of a baseball and in the Ukraine similar warheads used in the smaller MRLS missiles have proven to be very deadly in use against the Russians. So the other day in Mozhnyakivka in occupied eastern Ukraine. 

It came to the attention of Kyiv that Moscow was carrying out familiarization training for newly trained and arrived Russians soldiers and so targeted a batch of around 150 soldiers and they paid the price for a dictator for life who covets' everything his neighbours owns

Russia: Decides to add additional armour to its equipment.

(Ukraine)  One of the things that we can take away from Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, is how badly its armoured forces have suffered at the hands of the defenders using Anti-tank missiles, mines, artillery and even drones,   Well it appears that Moscow has put its best scientists on the job and they have come up with a armour upgrade which can be carried out in the field on its Mstra 152mm self propelled gun , but saying that I'm not sure what happens when they undertake a fire mission:

Russia: Pictures emerge of downed Ukrainian suicide drone

(Russia) This past year we have been regaled to numerous stories of military targets deep inside Russia getting hit, presumably by Ukrainian drones, the thing  that many found baffling was the distances involved , resulting in much speculation as well as rumour and rife such as the strike on Soltsy 2 airbase over 400 miles from the Ukraine, but only 40 from Estonia. A strike on a factory in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan (700 miles from the Ukraine border)  where Russia is making copies of the Iranian Shahed 136 suicide drone on the 2nd of April revealed a small light aircraft crashing into the factory. 

Sources say, it was not a regular drone , rather a low speed modified Ukrainian Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat LSA (Light Sport Aircraft) that was used to hit Alabuga in Tatarstan region of Russia. pic.twitter.com/gP92To2401

— FL360aero (@fl360aero) April 2, 2024

Well things have become a lot clearer when pictures of another such aircraft surfaced which had crashed landed somewhere inside Russia revealing that the Ukrainians have jury rigged a small light aircraft (Ukrainian produced Sky Ranger Nynja,) for remote control and simply added a small bomb underneath. (OFAB-100-120)

The interesting about the UAV in question is how simple it is, I mean everybody else in the world have designed and built bespoke UAVs which no doubt aren't that cheap, yet here, a small aircraft fitted out with 3D printed parts and a small bomb underneath does exactly the same job for less than half the price.

Russia: Ukraine strikes Russia overnight with suicide drones

(Krasnodar Krai)  Overnight on the 26th and into the morning of the 27th April 2023, Ukraine carried out a number of UAV strikes in the Krasnodar Krai region of Russia , which is situated to the east of the Crimea on the otherside side of the Kerch bridge.

So far it is been reported that a oil refinery and the military airfield at kushchyovskaya were struck. The interesting thing about the airfield strike is that it was where the Russians relocated their aircraft based in the Crimea , after their security could no longer be guaranteed there after numerous Ukrainian strikes. (Like the one 10 days ago on the 17th of April) in fact google maps shows over 50 aircraft based at the airfield. 

But that is only half the story. In recent months Russia has regained the momentum in its invasion of the Ukraine and one of the means it has done so is by fitting small wings onto dumb bombs adding the Russian version of GPS (Glonass) and hey presto a cheap guided weapon, which unlike the US version (JDAMS) due to its size doesnt require a direct hit to damage the target area (usually dug in troops) and the Russians have used such to devastating effect 

Well post strike video from the airfield shows the Ukrainians also destroyed a warehouse containing the glide kits for the Russians FAB bombs. 

Ukrainian strikes on Krasnodar Krai partially affected Russian aerial bombardment storage — at the airbase in the town of Kushchyovskaya, Krasnodar Krai, a UMPK warehouse was destroyed.

— The UMPK is a wing kit/guidance module installed on general-purpose “dumb” bombs and… pic.twitter.com/P0yIPFPhLU

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 27, 2024

Ukraine: A huge mistake by Kyiv sees Russians advance 5 miles in hours.

(Donbas)  So during a roulement change over on the front line between the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade and its replacement the 115th Mechanized Brigade for some reason or other left the defensive positions the 47^th had been holding empty, Russian forces noticing that error, cashed in by quickly sending forces to rush forward and take those positions before the 115^th  took over, which resulted in the Russians advancing 5 kilometres into Ukrainian territory, only a counterattack by the Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade stopped the Russians from advancing from the now captured village of Ocheretyne another 7 miles west to the town of Prohres. Huge mistake by the Ukrainians which no doubt will see some heads roll back in Kyiv.

As the map from Ukraine livemaps (below) show, if the Russians had manage to advance to Prohres along the same trainline they used to capture Ocheretyne, then the entire area below it would have become untenable and the Ukrainians would have had to retreat behind the water feature in which to regroup, which would have collapsed that sector of the Ukrainian battle line, even now it is still vulnerable and no doubt the Russians will go all out to capture it.

Russia: Ukraine claims to have shot down a TU-22M, 200 odd miles inside Russia.

(Stavropol) On Friday a video was released showing a Russian TU-22M bomber tumbling out of the sky whilst on fire. strategic bomber has gone down over Stavropol Krai, in the North Caucasus region of Russia.  

Kyiv claims it shot it down, whilst Moscow admitting the loss claims it was due to a technical failure which doesn’t explain why a second TU-22M which was accompanying the one which fell from the sky in flames decided to turn tail and return to base without launching the cruise missiles it was carrying. Yeah, funny that. What is most interesting about this incident , is it took place around 200 miles east of the Kerch bridge well inside Russia well out of the range of the supplied Western Air defence missiles such as Patriot and supports the widely held view that the Ukraine has somehow upgraded its ancient soviet era S200 missiles (range 190 miles+) in which to target and take out modern Russia aircraft in areas (such as the downing of the Russia Beriev A-50 AWAC aircraft) which until of late , Moscow felt its aircraft were safe to operate in.

The TU 22M is a supersonic, variable-sweep wing, long-range strategic bomber which entered service with the Soviet Airforce in 1972, that said, the aircraft has been upgraded numerous times over the years and the latest iteration  Tu-22M3M (New engines from Tu-160M2 , 80 percent of avionics replaced or upgraded, including SVP-24-22 bombsights, a phased array NV-45 radar, GLONASS navigation system, modern digital glass cockpit and engine controls, electronic warfare countermeasures, and the ability to use precision air-to-surface weapons.) coming into service in 2018

Ukraine: Strikes Crimean Naval dockyard , destroying Russian Submarine and Landing ship

(Sevastopol)  Early Wednesday morning (14/09/23) the Ukraine struck 2 naval targets - Rostov-on-don a Kilo type Submarine and the Minsk a Project775 Ropucha-class large landing ship. The targeting was somewhat easy as both were in dry dock undergoing maintenance  for the Rostov-on-don and repairs for the Minsk after it had been damaged by an earlier Ukrainian attack on the 3^rd of August 2023  and so the Ukrainians knew exactly where they were.

New Sevastopol dry dock higher resolution satellite image shows heavy damage on both ships hit; Ropucha landing ship and Kilo submarine.#Sebastopol https://t.co/snrsyfdIY4 pic.twitter.com/xbvVAdhzG5

— Tom Bike (@tom_bike) September 13, 2023

The loss of both ships and the blockage of two major drydocks until both wrecks are cleared will impact on the Russian Navy’s ability to conduct offensive operations for a while.

The loss of the Kilo Submarine will be the largest loss as it is the major launch vehicle for the Kalibr cruise missiles which it has been doing with impunity since the war started in Feb 2022. The Russians started with 2 kilo class submarines in the Black Sea, with usually 1 at sea and the other 1 in dock. The loss of 1 will now impact Moscow ability to launch missiles, not only that but due to Kyiv’s lethal strikes on the Russian fleet in and around Crimea, and after the sinking of the Moskva April 2022 by the use of Anti-Ship missiles, Moscow has relocated most of its Black Sea fleet to the port of Novorossiysk as far away from Ukraine as possible in which to keep them out of harm’s way. That said, the Captain of Krasnodar the other Kilo class submarine in the Black Sea, was gunned down and killed on the 10^th of July 2023 apparently in revenge for the missile launched by his submarine on the Ukrainian city of  Vinnytsia in July 2022 of which killed 27 civilians, including three children.

The loss of the Minsk landing ship, may not be felt now, but if the Ukraine manage to take out the Kursk bridge, then its loss will be felt. Also if the Ukrainian army makes progress in its march towards the sea, it would also allow the Russians to quickly redeploy troops from the sea, but that is something of a guess seeing as of the 6 Project 775 Ropucha-class large landing ships Moscow had in the Black sea at the start of its invasion of Ukraine in Feb 22,1  (Minsk) has been destroyed and another 3 are currently undergoing repairs after been badly damaged by Ukrainian attacks . Meaning the Russians understand only too well how these ships are vulnerable and as we have seen, they have become somewhat adverse to putting them in harms way.

Crimea: Ukraine targets and strikes the Kerch Bridge again.

(Kerch Strait) one of the reasons Putin launched his invasion of the Ukraine was to capture a land bridge to the Crimea which he failed to do when he annexed the Crimea in 2014. This resulted initially in everything been flown and shipped in (at great expense) which was alleviated somewhat when at great expense Russia constructed the 19km Kerch Bridge 

Consisting of a pair of parallel bridges, one for a four-lane road and one for a double-track railway, spanning the Kerch Strait between the Taman Peninsula of Krasnodar Krai in Russia and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea construction began in 2016, with the road bridge completed in 2018 followed a year later by the rail bridge.

The Bridge is the major supply route into Crimea for everything, which is why the Ukraine targeted in last Oct knocking the road bridge out till feb 2023 and the rail bridge to May. Well last night the Ukraine targeted the bridge yet again knocking out one of the road bridges.

Initially the Russians refused to admit that the bridge had been hit, simply claiming that an emergency had closed the bridge. But now they have claiming that the Ukrainians did indeed target and strike the bridge. According to state-backed Russian media, Vladimir Konstantinov said Ukraine had committed a "new crime" by targeting what he called a "civilian" facility.  It never fails to amaze me how bully’s always play the victim card when their victims fight back.

Russia: Deploys its latest T14 tank to the Ukraine

(Moscow) The Russian media has revealed that it has deployed its latest Main Battle tank to the Ukraine, albeit in an indirect fore role and not in a tank offensive capability.  The news report states that the tank crews have undergone extensive training before hand and that the tanks have received additional protection.

Initially seen as a game changer when revealed to the world in 2015, that POV has slowly dissipated after Moscow suffered numerous set backs resulting in the 2500 tanks Moscow was supposed to have received by 2020, getting pushed back with no set date for  said delivery, as of 2023 , Russia is said to have received 40.

The problem that Moscow faces, is if the Ukrainians manage to knock out the T14 tank and display its wreckage to the world, then that will be a huge blow to the Russian arms industry which this past year has already suffered a huge setback due to the poor showing of Russian weapons inside the Ukraine.

Ukraine: Why the US is pondering to supply Kyiv with the Patriot Missile System

(Washington) So, a major story coming out of the US at the moment is that POTUS is on the cusp of signing off the supply of the Patriotmissile system to the Ukraine. A theatre level weapon which for the past 10 months Washington has refused to supply Kyiv. So, what has changed Washingtons mind?

Since Moscow started suffering reversals inside the Ukraine on the Battlefield:

• Pushed out of the Kyiv Oblast
• Pushed out of the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblast
• Pushed out of Kharkiv Oblast
• Pushed out of the East bank of the Kherson Oblast
• Kicked out of Snake Island
• The sinking of the Moskva
• Disablement of Kerch bridge

Putin  has taken to using Cruise and Ballistic missiles to carry out long range missile attacks across the Ukraine (primarily on its infrastructure) in which to hurt the Ukrainian population which he knows is unable to fight back, there is also the added bonus of trying to force the liberal Europeans populations to demand their leaders to force a ceasefire in which to end this war, albeit in Moscow’s favour. Well Moscow’s supply of missiles (Cruise and Ballistic) have run low, resulting in Moscow going cap in hand to Iran regards supplying Moscow with Loitering munitions. 

Whilst initially effective, the Ukrainians (with supplied NATO anti-aircraft weaponry) have become adept at knocking these loitering munitions out of the sky such as the latest attack on the 14^th Dec 2022 when all 13 such weapons (usually Shahed 136) aimed at Kyiv were taken out. 

Moscow realizing that the supply of western Anti-aircraft systems have started to make a difference, decided that importing Ballistic missiles from Iran such as the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles will allow them to bypass the supplied NATO missiles systems and continue to pound the Ukrainian civilian population into submission. Which is where the Patriot Missile system comes in, these past 7 years has seen the Iranians via their Houthi proxy launching Ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia which using the Patriot missile system has taken out over 300 Missiles. The very same missiles Moscow is looking to procure from Iran.

Naturally the Russians aren’t happy at the news that the US may supply a theatre wide defensive weapon to the Ukraine and have stated that the system would be a prime target. But then, everything inside the Ukraine has been a target for Moscow since Feb 2022.

US: Looking at providing Ukraine with the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb

(Washington) The supply of NATO weapons to Kyiv whilst relatively small compared to the total number of weapons actually in use by the Ukraine made a huge impact against the Russian war machine which helped slow down , halt and reverse the Russian thrust at Kyiv at the beginning of the war. (Looking at the US supplied Javelin, The British/Swedish NLAW) by no means do I belittle the Ukrainian fighting capability, but the effectiveness of NATO supplied Anti-tank weapons surprised not only the Russians, but everybody else. We see similar with the supply of anti-aircraft missiles , which have not only helped keep the Russian air force grounded over the Ukraine (That said, the Ukraine’s initial holdings of the S300, BUK, TOR and 2K22 Tunguska played a much bigger part) but have played a huge part in mitigating the use of cruise missiles, and loitering munitions that Moscow has been launching at mass at the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (Granted a load are still getting through, but the fact remains a lot are getting taken out)

(A German supplied Gepard taking out a Russian missile/Drone) 

And then we have the poster boy for NATO supplied weapons the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System better known as HIMARS. 

People wax lyrical about the vehicle yes HIMARS is a vehicle and not a Missile as people presume, actually it’s a lightweight wheeled iteration of the tracked M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System, a system still in use and which carries twice the number of missiles (12 as opposed to 6) that its younger sibling can and of which the Ukraine has received at least 10

Funny enough, Russia sports hundreds of Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, (MLRS) and has done for a lot longer than the west, but where the M270 (and the M142) differ is by fitting GPS systems onto their missiles turning them into precision guided munitions which as we have seen have been used to deadly effect inside the Ukraine. Moscow whilst having the capability to do similar, has not only been slow to do so, but only has a few systems in use. The only issue for the Ukraine is the relatively short range of the missiles (around 57 miles) saying that, the strike on the Wagner R and R base in the city of Melitopol killing between 100 to 200 Russian soldiers’ hints at the use of the ER GMLRS missile which has a range of 92 miles. 

As mentioned the missiles in use by both the M270 MLRS and the M142 HIMARS, have proven to be most effective . Kyiv would like to get its hand on the MGM-140 ATACMS missile which both systems can launch, and that has a range of 186 miles and a warhead twice the size of the normal ones. If supplied, this would be a huge game changer for the Ukraine, but the US has been reticent in supplying the Ukraine, because they fear that if launched at targets inside Russia, Moscow would up the ante with Putin doing something really stupid. 

 As a compromise , the US is looking at handing over the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB). Launched exactly like a normal MLRS missile after a set distance the missile opens up and releases a Small diameter bomb, (SDB) 

which is basically a 250lb bomb fitted with wings and a GPS system. Usually carried by planes, the SBD has proven to be a very accurate , lethal and a cost effective weapon ($40K as opposed to $100K for a normal MLRS missile) The GLSDB has a range of around 93 miles , is accurate to 1 metre, has the ability fly a programme course which would allow it to fly around missile defence systems, to track and hit moving targets and hit targets on the reverse side of slopes . 

If the go ahead is given, the Ukraine will receive a real game changer, one that would punish the Russians inside the Ukraine no end.