(ISW) The nice people at the Institute for the Study of War have brought out a map which shows the situation inside Iraq as of Thursday the 16th, February 2017:
Baghdad witnessed serious breaches of security from February
11 to 16 due to both escalating protest movements and ISIS attacks. A large
Sadrist-led protest, demanding electoral reforms, tried to move from Tahrir
Square into the Green Zone on February 11, but security forces repelled the
protesters with force, resulting in casualties. Soon after the protesters
withdrew, unidentified attackers (Now believed to be pro-Iranian proxies) launched three rockets at the Green Zone from
eastern Baghdad, resulting in no casualties. The Sadrist-affiliated militia
denied responsibility for the rockets, however the attack may have been the act
of Iranian proxy militias which have carried out rocket attacks against U.S.
infrastructure before. ISIS, meanwhile, continued carrying out spectacular
attacks in the capital, including a bombing on February 16 that killed upwards
of fifty people, the deadliest of 2017 so far. Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi
called an emergency meeting on February 16 in order to issue procedures to
ensure security.
The increased intensity of the Sadrist demonstrations could
escalate ongoing intra-Shi’a competition in Baghdad and southern Iraq. Sadrist
Trend leader Muqtada al-Sadr retains the momentum to continue mass protests,
busing in and mobilizing thousands on February 11, then again on February 14,
and calling for another protest on February 17. Sadr had similar momentum in
early 2016, when protests spread from Baghdad to the southern provinces.
Sadrist protesters are historically undisciplined, however, and in 2016 they
attacked political offices in southern Iraq, including Dawa Party and other
pro-Iran party headquarters. Similar attacks now as political parties gear up
for both provincial and national elections could inflame a greater intra-Shi’a
conflict in the southern provinces. Basra will likely be a significant flash
point as there have already been attacks related to election violence in the
past month. Baghdad will need to move quickly to quell Sadr’s protests before
they instigate a greater conflict between armed political groups in the capital
and southern provinces.
