(ISW) An ongoing Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders
may indicate preparations for conventional military conflict. It certainly marks a dramatic escalation of
tensions that will have significant repercussions in Ukraine. Russia has deployed additional military
forces and systems to Ukraine’s northern, eastern, and southern borders. Russian
military activity around Ukraine has increased since May 2016 when Defense
Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of three new divisions in the
Western and Southern Military Districts.
The current crisis escalated following
August 8th when Russia accused Ukrainian special-forces of attempting to
infiltrate Crimea on August 7th. Russia has used the allegation to engage in a
rapid military build-up on the peninsula and in the separatist regions of
Donbas. In a five-day period August 7-12th, Russia has deployed additional
naval and air units, ground forces and military hardware, as well as the S-400
air defence system on August 12th.
Russia also conducted provocative exercises
in Transnistria on Ukraine’s western border. These new deployments constitute a
significant expansion of Russia’s force projection capabilities and may signal
preparations for a large-scale military conflict. Russia’s current force
posture allows it to threaten or conduct military operations into Ukraine from
multiple directions, increasing Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian or
Russia-backed separatist forces. It
thereby compels the Ukrainian military to divide its own forces to address multiple
threats. It has also predictably triggered Ukrainian military alerts and
mobilizations, which will tax Ukraine’s finances and military capabilities and
may also further weaken Ukraine’s fragile political situation.
