(ISW) The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have knocked out an
article which illuminates exactly what Russia is up to in the ME:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging Russia’s
position in Syria to further diminish U.S. influence in the broader Middle East
and North Africa. Russia will increasingly constrain U.S. freedom of maneuver
in the broader region by expanding its military footprint and its anti-access
and area denial zone. Putin advanced his regional strategy from February 27 to
March 20, 2017 in three ways. First, he promoted economic relationships with
key U.S. allies, including Egypt and Iraqi Kurds. Russia and Egypt reached
tentative agreements to establish a Russian industrial zone in the Suez Gulf
area and to resume Russian flights to tourist destinations in Sinai. Russia
also renegotiated its oil agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government on
February 28. Second, Putin cultivated ties to local security forces,
particularly those he seeks to draw away from partnership with the U.S., such
as the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Russia brokered an
agreement to give the Syrian regime control of villages near Manbij, Syria to
deter a Turkish-backed offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces, and deployed
Russian forces to train the YPG on March 20. Third, Putin took steps to further
develop Russian strategic basing across the region. The deployment of Russian
special forces to a base in western Egypt in early March signals Russia’s
intent to expand its strategic basing along the Mediterranean Sea. Russia’s
overtures to Egypt pose a particular concern as NATO conducts greater outreach
to Egypt.
