(ISW) Here is the current situation as reported by the Institute for the study of War regards Afghanistan:
1. Militants attacked heavily fortified areas in Kabul City,
launching four explosive attacks against security and diplomatic targets from
March 25 to 29. ISIS Wilayat Khorasan militants also indicated intent to attack
Kabul City by claiming two unconfirmed attacks in southern Kabul on April 6.
These attacks will likely increase following the announcement of the Taliban
militants’ summer offensive “Operation Omari” on April 12.
2. Clearing operations continued to displace ISIS Wilayat
Khorasan militants from Nangarhar Province into other eastern provinces. ISIS’s
militants reportedly moved to Sar Kani District, Kunar Province following ANSF
clearing operations in Nangarhar Province in late March. ISIS militants also
conducted their first attack in Ghazni Province north of Ghazni City on March
11 and reportedly continued recruiting in Ghazni and Zabul Provinces, including
Gelan, Jaghuri, and Khak-e Afghan Districts in early April. Some ISIS militants
remain in southern Nangarhar despite a significant increase in U.S. airstrikes and
ANSF clearing operations, with some allegedly pledging allegiance to Taliban
leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour on April 11.
3. ANSF retook Reg-e Khan Neshin District Center in Helmand
Province with support from US airstrikes on March 28 after Taliban militants
briefly captured it on March 15, demonstrating the effectiveness of ANSF
operations combined with U.S. airstrikes. Taliban militants control seven
districts in Helmand Province, however, and are contesting areas surrounding
the provincial capital Lashkar Gah. ISW has updated this version of its
Afghanistan map to reflect Taliban militants’ longstanding control of Baghran
District Center in Helmand, which is now among ISW’s researched districts. The
map now also reflects Taliban militants’ effective control of Kajaki District
Center, as the ANSF is reportedly unable to maneuver beyond a fixed position at
the nearby Kajaki dam.
4. Rival Taliban militant factions participated in
large-scale clashes in Shindand District, Herat Province. Shindand District is
a launching pad for militant operations in western Afghanistan. The district is
currently a stronghold for leading dissident Taliban commander Mullah Rasul
Akhund’s faction.
5. Rival Northern Warlords First Vice President General
Abdul Rashid Dostum and Balkh Provincial Governor Mohammad Atta Noor conducted
competing operations against Taliban militants in Faryab, Jowzjan and Balkh
Provinces in late February and early March. Competition between the rival
warlords intensified when Dostum and Atta’s supporters staged protests and
counter-protests in Mazar-e Sharif and Maimanah Cities on March 22 and 23.
Competition between these northern warlords reflects competition between
President Ghani, linked with Ghani, and CEO Abdullah Abdullah, whom Atta backs,
and challenges the legitimacy of the National Unity Government by strengthening
militias conducting operations outside of government control.
6. Taliban militants recaptured Dand-e Ghori area, Pul-e
Khumri District, Baghlan Province, returning to the area on March 24 after the
ANSF conducted multiple clearing operations. Dand-e Ghori lies on the main road
connecting northern Baghlan and Balkh provincial capitals Pul-e Khumri and
Mazar-e Sharif and was originally captured by Taliban militants in last year’s
spring offensive. Control of this area enables militants to attack Pul-e Khumri
City and disrupt travel to Mazar-e Sharif. Taliban militants may have seized
the area as a means of demonstrating Pashtun strength in response to protests
and militia operations by Uzbek Dostum and Tajik Atta. The capture of Dand-e
Ghori immediately followed protests in Mazar-e Sharif and Maimanah on March 22
and 23. Militants also attacked Dowlatabad City in late March in Faryab after
Dostum’s operations in the province.
