(ISW) Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) units resumed their
advance into western Mosul on April 11 after a 19-day pause. CTS units are
advancing along two axes. The northern advance will link up with the 9th Iraqi
Army (IA) Armoured Division conducting clearing operations northwest of the
city. Additional CTS units are encircling the Old City toward the sector’s
northern boundary. CTS Commander Abdul Ghani al-Assadi indicated his troops may
open a corridor north of the Old City in hopes that ISIS militants will flee
the Old City rather than fight in the dense complex. The U.N estimates as many
as 400,000 civilians are trapped within the Old City. ISIS has intentionally
drawn U.S.-led Coalition airstrikes on structures within the Old City where it
has forced civilians to congregate. ISIS will continue this strategy, as it
successfully stirred up political blowback. ISIS also conducted small-scale
chemical weapons attacks on ISF in the Old City, though with minimal impact
according to ISF and U.S. Department of Defense sources. ISIS will likely
allocate its greatest defenses to al-Nuri Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi appeared publically in 2014.
Turkey’s escalation of attacks on U.S. partner forces in
northern Syria and northwest Iraq threaten anti-ISIS operations. Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated he would launch a new, Iraq phase of
operation in Syria, Operation Euphrates Shield on April 4. The Turkish Air
Force conducted airstrikes on positions held by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
affiliates near Sinjar in addition to Hasaka Province, eastern Syria on April
25. The Turkish airstrikes also hit a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) base
near Sinjar, likely unintentionally. Turkey also pressured Iraq’s Prime
Minister Haidar al-Abadi to redirect Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units
(PMU) from Tel Afar, a primarily Turkmen town west of Mosul by threatening
action should the PMU seize Tel Afar. PM Abadi cut a deal with PMU elements to
divert efforts from Tel Afar to villages southwest of Sinjar, near the Iraq-Syria
border. PM Abadi’s decision reduced the threat of a Turkish-Iranian contest
over Tel Afar that could have threatened the final phase of the Mosul
operation. Turkish incursions in northern Iraq strain relations between Baghdad
and the Kurdistan Regional Government and also detract from the Mosul
campaign’s final phase.
