(ISW) The U.S. faces pressure from Russia as well as militant groups that seek to undermine the U.S. and NATO missions in Afghanistan during spring and summer 2017. The ANSF faces readiness gaps that will expose multiple provincial capitals to recurrent attacks by the Taliban and escalating attacks in Kabul by multiple groups, including ISIS. These threats will compound the difficulty the ANSF already faces in holding territory recaptured from Taliban forces in 2016. Russia meanwhile will attempt to thwart the U.S. and NATO by brokering peace talks with the Taliban that increasingly incorporate competing international power centres, such as China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The Taliban set conditions during the winter phase of its
yearlong campaign, Operation Omari, to target provincial capitals during its
upcoming spring 2017 offensive. Taliban militants attacked security posts and
district centres near the provincial capitals of Helmand, Kunduz, and Uruzgan
provinces over the reporting period, indicating their intent to attack these
cities during their upcoming spring 2017 offensive when they announce it in
April 2017. Taliban militants had also launched simultaneous attacks on the
same three cities, as well as the provincial capital of Farah Province, in
October 2016. Taliban militants attacked four district centers in Helmand in
January and February 2017 to weaken security forces and gain territory to stage
attacks against Lashkar Gah city. Taliban militants also launched several
attacks against security posts on the outskirts of Tarin Kot city, the
provincial capital of Uruzgan province in January and February. Taliban
militants also attacked ANA bases in Baghlan-e Jadid District in Baghlan
Province in March 2017 in an attempt to gain control of the ground line of
communication (GLOC) that the ANSF uses to send reinforcements to Kunduz City
from Kabul. These attacks indicate that the Taliban intends to launch ground
campaigns against Lashkar Gah, Tarin Kot, and Kunduz cities during the upcoming
spring offensive.
ISIS Wilayat Khorasan took advantage of ungoverned and
remote spaces in northwest Afghanistan to expand its territory. ISIS expanded
beyond its stronghold in Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan and
established a base to receive and train foreign fighters in northwest
Afghanistan. Uzbek militants fighting with ISIS in Jowzjan province exerted
social control by destroying Sufi shrines, burning civilian homes, and erecting
prisons in early 2017. ISIS deployed recruiters from Zabul province to set up a
training camp in Nimroz province in early 2017. ISIS will prioritize expanding
its control in Afghanistan as it faces the loss of its capital cities in Syria
and Iraq in 2017. ISIS will also attack Afghan state institutions directly.
ISIS launched a complex attack against the ANSF national military hospital in
Kabul on March 8, 2017. The attack demonstrated an increase in capability,
insider access, and the transfer of techniques from other groups in the area or
from ISIS’s core terrain.
ANSF force regeneration is not on track to match the
Taliban’s spring offensives. The ANSF failed to secure large swaths of
territory from Taliban militants during the winter phase of its own
counter-offensive campaign, Operation Shafaq. The majority of its holding
forces are insufficiently trained and under-equipped, requiring additional
support from Afghan Special Security Forces. Taliban militants targeted
southern and northern districts during the winter phase of Operation Omari
while the ANSF conducted anti-ISIS operations in the East. The ANSF continues
to struggle with high casualties and attrition despite ongoing U.S.-led force
regeneration efforts. Recruitment generally keeps pace with these losses, but
it is insufficient to build the force necessary to clear and hold territory
from Taliban militants. The Afghan Air Force’s (AAF) capabilities are steadily
increasing, but its airframes are in “dire condition” due to high operational
tempo and compromised helicopter maintenance due to sanctions on Russian
equipment. Russia will attempt to leverage this weakness to insert itself in
Afghanistan’s security sector on its own terms. The Taliban will likely
capitalize on the ANSF’s readiness gaps by launching simultaneous offensives in
separate regions during its spring offensive in order to stretch and weaken the
ANSF to a breaking point.
