(Syria) With the encirclement of the rebel held city of Aleppo by the Syrian regime almost complete, heavy fighting in Syria's second city has been reported, which may be the start of the long awaited assault upon the city
Aleppo is the primary nexus of opposition strength in northern Syria and its capture would bolster Assads claim to legitimate rule over ‘all
corners’ of Syria and buttress his position at the table during any future negotiations with the
international community.
Russia and Iran also view Aleppo City as key to the longterm
preservation of their client regime. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have strategic interests in preserving
President Assad, including permanent basing on the Eastern Mediterranean Sea
for the former and direct ground lines of communication to Lebanese Hezbollah
for the latter. The Syrian Civil War provides Russia and Iran with a platform
from which to assert their ‘great power ‘status while challenging the U.S. and
its network of global alliances.
Pro-regime forces have conducted a notable buildup in the
vicinity of Aleppo City, with local media outlets reporting large numbers of
personnel, armored vehicles, and artillery systems deploying to the area since
at least April 11. Russia has also redeployed its own artillery units to Aleppo
City from eastern Homs Province, where the systems had played a key role
supporting the operation that seized Palmyra from ISIS on March 27. At the same
time, Iran has allegedly conducted twice-daily flights into the Aleppo International
Airport over the past two weeks in order to deliver supplies and reinforcements
from the 65th Airborne Special Forces Brigade of the Iranian Army. Meanwhile,
Iranian-backed proxy forces remain concentrated in southern Aleppo Province
near the expected route of advance for any operation to lift the siege of the
Shi’a-majority towns of Fu’ah and Kefraya in Idlib Province. Pro-regime forces have
mobilized for several attempts to recapture the town of Al-Eis in southern Aleppo
Province (Point 1 on map) after its fall to the opposition on April 1 despite
high casualties.
Russia resumed its air campaign against the opposition as
early as February 28, one day after the start of the ‘cessation of
hostilities’, concentrating its strikes against the opposition-held north-western
suburbs of Aleppo City. Meanwhile, proregime forces have leveraged a deepening
partnership with the Syrian Kurdish YPG in order to pressure the Castello Road
- the only remaining ground line of communication to opposition-held Aleppo
City. The Syrian Kurdish YPG clashed with opposition factions along the
Castello Road near Sheikh Maqsoud District (Point 2) on multiple occasions
through March and April 2016, threatening to isolate the opposition-held
districts of Aleppo City. On April 14, pro-regime forces supported by alleged
Russian airstrikes launched a failed attack against positions held by Jabhat
al-Nusra and other opposition groups in Handarat Camp and Mallah Farms, located
in the northern outskirts of Aleppo City (Point 3). These clashes likely aimed
to probe opposition defences along one potential route of advance for
pro-regime forces attempting to encircle the city.
Russia reportedly deployed ground forces as well as
shipments of weapons and ammunition to support the Syrian Kurdish YPG in the
Afrin Canton of Aleppo Province (Point 4) in April 2016, according to anonymous
Russian officials. The outreach suggests that pro-regime forces may intend to
cooperate with the Syrian Kurds in order to complete the encirclement of Aleppo
City from the north. This military cooperation presented the Syrian Kurds with
an opportunity to advance their ultimate objective of linking their isolated
cantons into a single contiguous zone of control along the Syrian-Turkish border.
Russia has also expanded its political support for the Syrian Kurds over the
past three months, calling for their inclusion in the Geneva III Talks and
hosting their first foreign mission in Moscow.
However, the regime isn't going to find it easy to take Aleppo, this video has emerged of a huge underground bomb which saw dozens of regimes forces being killed:
#Aleppo: Drone footage of the rebel tunnel bomb, that killed dozens of #Assad forces. pic.twitter.com/hxGqgLrUhT— WorldOnAlert (@worldonalert) 4 May 2016
Here a regime BMP (Why would any sane person enter a battlefield in one of these death traps)
is taken out by a TOW missile
— WorldOnAlert (@worldonalert) 4 May 2016
Here a group of Syrian troops and a technical (Pickup fitted with a heavy machine gun) get taken out by an ATGM
#Aleppo: #Syria|n rebels killed a group of #Assad forces and destroyed a technical with TOW https://t.co/0j4GKl5bdA— WorldOnAlert (@worldonalert) 4 May 2016
There's no way the rebels are going to win in the long run, but they will give the other fellow a bloody nose.
