Israel: "This time, the war is going to last for as long as it takes to destroy Hezbollah"

(Vancouver Sun) It is the front line of Israel's deepening conflict with Iran, and beneath the snow-capped peaks of Mount Hermon the final preparations are taking shape for a conflict that promises to change the landscape of the modern Middle East.

On one side, amid the foot-hills of southern Lebanon, is Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia that is busily stockpiling thousands of missiles in readiness for the next round of hostilities against its sworn enemy, Israel.

On the other side stand the men and women of Israel's armed forces, the defenders of the Jewish state who are working on their own plans to defeat the Tehran-controlled militia that is committed to Israel's destruction.

The last time these two combatants clashed was in the summer of 2006, when Israel launched a full-scale onslaught against Hezbollah after it kid-napped two Israeli soldiers as they were patrolling the south Lebanon border. The Second Lebanon War, as it is known in Israel, lasted for 33 days and resulted in the deaths of an estimated 1,200 people. But the war ended inconclusively with Hezbollah largely intact and Ehud Olmert, the hawkish Israeli prime minister who ordered the offensive, was hounded from office over his handling of the conflict.

Today, though, there is a steely determination within Israel's high command to finish the job once and for all and eradicate the threat Hezbollah poses to Israel's security.

At Bravo 30, the Israeli defensive position where Hezbollah staged its audacious ambush back in 2006, I found pieces of twisted metal marking the spot where the Israeli soldiers' jeep was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by Hezbollah militants concealed on a nearby hill. Not far from where I stood, the black flag of Hezbollah was clearly visible on the roof of a house in a Shiite village on the other side of the border. At points, the distance between these indomitable foes is so close that from an Israeli army position it is possible to hear Hezbollah fighters calling to each other.

For the moment, an uneasy truce is observed under the watchful presence of the 13,000-strong UN force that was deployed to southern Lebanon to keep the peace after the 2006 conflict. But the calm would immediately be shattered if, as seems increasingly likely, Israel becomes involved in a military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program.

All week, senior Israeli military and intelligence officials attending the annual Herziliya Conference on global security in Tel Aviv have been fending off questions from foreign journalists trying to discover whether Israel is about to launch unilateral air strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

The most convincing answer I heard - from a senior officer serving with the Israeli Defence Force - was that, while all the preparations for an Israeli strike have been completed, the final decision on whether to attack has yet to be taken by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Ehud Barak, the defence minister.

Their decision rests predominantly on how Iran responds to the latest round of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU. If Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear program, military action may be averted. But no one in Israel appears prepared to allow Iran to continue building an atom bomb - despite some senior U.S. and Israeli officials admitting they have no direct evidence that a bomb is Tehran's goal (Iran insists it is not). But the western consensus is that Iran's nuclear pro-gram is sophisticated enough that it could easily be used to make weapons.

The consensus at Herziliya is that Israel will attack Iran before the year is out. At that point, all hell will break loose along Israel's northern border, as Iran retaliates by ordering Hezbollah to bombard Israeli towns and cities.

During the 2006 conflict, Hezbollah had about 10,000 Iranian-made rockets, most of them short-range missiles that threatened only residential areas in northern Israel.

But Israel estimates that Hezbollah now has more than 40,000 missiles, many with a range of up to 300 km - enough for an attack on Tel Aviv.

In addition, the Israelis have seen a marked change in Hezbollah's tactics.

"In the past, Hezbollah fighters always wore uniforms, so they were easy to identify," an Israeli infantry officer told me. "But now they dress as civilians so it is far harder for us to tell them apart. The next war will be an urban war."

While Hezbollah's primary objective will be to inflict as much damage as possible on Israel's main population centres, the Israelis make no secret of their desire to eradicate Hezbollah's military infrastructure, something they failed to do in 2006.

During the last conflict, Israel was forced to agree to a cease-fire because of the international outcry over its air raids against Lebanese targets, such as Beirut airport. Next time, the Israelis are determined not to end the conflict until Hezbollah is destroyed as a fighting force.

"This time, the war is going to last for as long as it takes to destroy Hezbollah," said an Israeli officer. "We will not make the same mistake of allowing them to escape."

The only problem with this uncompromising Israeli approach, however, is the effect it will have on the rest of the region. The new Islamic government in Egypt, for example, is unlikely to stay on the side-lines while Israel tries to pummel Muslims into submission. Nor will the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad, an ally of Hezbollah, stand idly by as it did in 2006. Going to war with Israel is certainly one way for Assad to end anti-government protests in that it would rally the country behind him.

Consequently, any conflict that began as a border skirmish between Israel and Hezbollah could become an all-out war between Israel and its Arab neighbours, with all the catastrophic implications that would have for both the region's Jews and Arabs.