Russia will experience "a kind of Arab Spring" within two years if the winner does not initiate profound and swift political reforms one of the main candidates fighting Sunday's presidential election has warned.
(Telegraph) Sergei Mironov, 59, said Vladimir Putin was the likely next president but predicted he would face growing unrest if he failed to respond to protesters' demands.
"Russia today is like the Concordia liner," he said in an interview at his offices, "steaming on to the reefs while the captain tells those aboard, 'don't worry, everything is calm and normal.' But it's not normal and we need to set the ship on a new course."
Mironov added: "Whoever wins the presidency, if he does not immediately begin deep political and social reforms including a clearer articulation of our foreign policy objectives, my prediction is that Russia will shaken by a kind of Arab Spring within two years."
Mironov is a former ally of Putin and it cannot be ruled out that he is raising the spectre of a revolution as a subtle way of endorsing a crackdown on street demonstrations that are expected in the days after the vote.
However, the ex-paratrooper had a serious falling out with Putin's allies when he was ousted as chairman of the upper house of parliament in May last year and his once Kremlin-controlled party, Fair Russia, has ploughed a more independent furrow in recent months.
Putin is expected to win the election handily – some polls put him 50% ahead of his closet rival, the communist, Gennady Zyuganov – but he has been rocked by a series of mass street protests against his rule.
Analysts say these demonstrations – in response to Putin's supporters crudely fixing a December parliamentary election in favour of his party, United Russia – show that Russians are no longer happy with the pact that saw them ignore a lack of civil freedoms in exchange for rising prosperity.
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